Mexico’s economic outlook is under pressure, with analysts forecasting a worsening business climate over the next six months. This shift comes as uncertainties grow following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, which has raised concerns over trade and investment relations between the two countries.
According to a survey conducted by Banco de Mexico in late November, 79% of private-sector economists expect the business climate to deteriorate, up from 72% in October. Bloomberg reports that this rising pessimism reflects mounting challenges for Mexico as businesses reconsider expansion plans in light of Trump’s protectionist stance.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has vowed to negotiate a deal to prevent U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports, but uncertainty persists. Companies that once eyed Mexico as a strategic base for accessing U.S. consumers are now hesitating, dampening enthusiasm for investment.
Bloomberg also highlights a significant drop in investor confidence. In March, 46% of analysts surveyed believed it was a favourable time to invest in Mexico, driven by optimism around the nearshoring trend and the elections in both nations. By November, however, that figure had plunged to just 8%.
Economic data further underline the challenges. The Banco de Mexico survey predicts GDP growth of only 1.53% in 2024, slowing to 1.2% in 2025. Additionally, the Mexican peso is projected to weaken, ending the year at 20.29 per dollar.
As Bloomberg notes, Trump’s election has amplified doubts about Mexico’s economic trajectory. The coming months will test the country’s ability to sustain growth and attract investment amid these uncertainties.
